The Bank of Japan's September 18 decision to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%—its sixth hike in the current cycle—has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the late-October meeting. Core CPI eased to 1.7% year-over-year in August amid energy subsidies, remaining below the 2% target for the eighth straight month even as underlying pressures from elevated crude prices, AI-driven demand, and yen weakness persist. Governor Ueda's post-meeting comments emphasized a data-dependent, preemptive approach to containing inflation overshoots without committing to consecutive moves, while two board members dissented. With the most recent adjustment still fresh and no major economic releases altering the near-term outlook, market-implied odds heavily favor no change, consistent with the BOJ's gradual normalization path toward a neutral rate estimated between 1.1% and 2.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$129,530 Vol.
$129,530 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
84%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$129,530 Vol.
$129,530 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$7,041 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$12,159 Vol.
<1%
No change
$43,971 Vol.
84%
25 bps increase
$45,851 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$20,508 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan's September 18 decision to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%—its sixth hike in the current cycle—has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the late-October meeting. Core CPI eased to 1.7% year-over-year in August amid energy subsidies, remaining below the 2% target for the eighth straight month even as underlying pressures from elevated crude prices, AI-driven demand, and yen weakness persist. Governor Ueda's post-meeting comments emphasized a data-dependent, preemptive approach to containing inflation overshoots without committing to consecutive moves, while two board members dissented. With the most recent adjustment still fresh and no major economic releases altering the near-term outlook, market-implied odds heavily favor no change, consistent with the BOJ's gradual normalization path toward a neutral rate estimated between 1.1% and 2.5%.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$129,530End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan's September 18 decision to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%—its sixth hike in the current cycle—has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the late-October meeting. Core CPI eased to 1.7% year-over-year in August amid energy subsidies, remaining below the 2% target for the eighth straight month even as underlying pressures from elevated crude prices, AI-driven demand, and yen weakness persist. Governor Ueda's post-meeting comments emphasized a data-dependent, preemptive approach to containing inflation overshoots without committing to consecutive moves, while two board members dissented. With the most recent adjustment still fresh and no major economic releases altering the near-term outlook, market-implied odds heavily favor no change, consistent with the BOJ's gradual normalization path toward a neutral rate estimated between 1.1% and 2.5%.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$129,530End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan's September 18 decision to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%—its sixth hike in the current cycle—has anchored trader expectations for a pause at the late-October meeting. Core CPI eased to 1.7% year-over-year in August amid energy subsidies, remaining below the 2% target for the eighth straight month even as underlying pressures from elevated crude prices, AI-driven demand, and yen weakness persist. Governor Ueda's post-meeting comments emphasized a data-dependent, preemptive approach to containing inflation overshoots without committing to consecutive moves, while two board members dissented. With the most recent adjustment still fresh and no major economic releases altering the near-term outlook, market-implied odds heavily favor no change, consistent with the BOJ's gradual normalization path toward a neutral rate estimated between 1.1% and 2.5%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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