The Bank of Japan’s September 18 decision to raise its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25 percent, the highest level in 31 years, anchors trader expectations for limited action at the October meeting. With underlying CPI inflation approaching but not exceeding the 2 percent target amid cooling August readings and a data-dependent framework, markets price an 83.5 percent implied probability of no change versus just 15.5 percent for another 25-basis-point increase. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized preemptive but measured adjustments to guard against overshooting, while noting the October outlook report as the next key assessment point. Recent yen weakness and energy price pressures from Middle East developments support gradual normalization, yet the short interval since the prior hike and board dissent reinforce consensus around a pause.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$129,670 Vol.
$129,670 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
84%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 84%
25 bps increase 16%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$129,670 Vol.
$129,670 Vol.
Oct 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$7,041 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$12,159 Vol.
<1%
No change
$43,991 Vol.
84%
25 bps increase
$45,951 Vol.
16%
50+ bps increase
$20,528 Vol.
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s September 18 decision to raise its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25 percent, the highest level in 31 years, anchors trader expectations for limited action at the October meeting. With underlying CPI inflation approaching but not exceeding the 2 percent target amid cooling August readings and a data-dependent framework, markets price an 83.5 percent implied probability of no change versus just 15.5 percent for another 25-basis-point increase. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized preemptive but measured adjustments to guard against overshooting, while noting the October outlook report as the next key assessment point. Recent yen weakness and energy price pressures from Middle East developments support gradual normalization, yet the short interval since the prior hike and board dissent reinforce consensus around a pause.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$129,670End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s September 18 decision to raise its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25 percent, the highest level in 31 years, anchors trader expectations for limited action at the October meeting. With underlying CPI inflation approaching but not exceeding the 2 percent target amid cooling August readings and a data-dependent framework, markets price an 83.5 percent implied probability of no change versus just 15.5 percent for another 25-basis-point increase. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized preemptive but measured adjustments to guard against overshooting, while noting the October outlook report as the next key assessment point. Recent yen weakness and energy price pressures from Middle East developments support gradual normalization, yet the short interval since the prior hike and board dissent reinforce consensus around a pause.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$129,670End Date
Oct 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s September 18 decision to raise its policy rate 25 basis points to 1.25 percent, the highest level in 31 years, anchors trader expectations for limited action at the October meeting. With underlying CPI inflation approaching but not exceeding the 2 percent target amid cooling August readings and a data-dependent framework, markets price an 83.5 percent implied probability of no change versus just 15.5 percent for another 25-basis-point increase. Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks emphasized preemptive but measured adjustments to guard against overshooting, while noting the October outlook report as the next key assessment point. Recent yen weakness and energy price pressures from Middle East developments support gradual normalization, yet the short interval since the prior hike and board dissent reinforce consensus around a pause.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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