**The Bank of Russia held its key rate at 14% in September amid elevated current price pressures and inflation expectations, with officials signaling limited scope for an immediate shift at the October 23 meeting.** Recent statements from Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin noted that the draft federal budget aligns closely with the central bank’s July baseline assumptions, reducing the case for a policy adjustment. Annual inflation reached 6.3% in August, above the 4% target, with underlying measures and weekly price growth showing persistence tied to fuel market effects and second-round pressures. Traders price a high probability of no change because incoming data and fiscal projections have not yet justified further easing, while the October forecast review will likely inform any later adjustments rather than prompt an immediate cut. A decrease remains possible only if inflation moderates more rapidly than expected, but current conditions support the market’s strong preference for stability at the next decision.