Christine Lagarde’s term as European Central Bank president runs until October 2027, and recent statements have reinforced expectations that any departure will occur in 2027 rather than 2026. In mid-September 2026 interviews she reiterated she will “leave in ‘27,” while leaving the precise timing open and dismissing immediate exit rumors as having “nothing to report.” Eurozone governments are already discussing a successor package covering her role and two other executive board seats expiring in 2027, yet no formal early-resignation announcement has materialized despite earlier speculation tied to international roles or French politics. Traders therefore assign the 71.5 percent “No” probability on the basis of her continued service through at least year-end 2026 and the absence of any confirmed timeline that would trigger an exit this calendar year.