US export controls imposed via a June 12, 2026 Commerce Department directive required Anthropic to suspend Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals worldwide, prompting a complete global shutdown of both models to ensure compliance despite the models' recent June 9 launch. As of June 29, Fable 5 remains unavailable to international customers and most general users, while a June 26 letter from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick permitted limited Mythos 5 deployment for select US critical-infrastructure entities. Anthropic has stated it continues negotiations to expand access and restore Fable 5 broadly. Trader sentiment centers on the pace of any revised licensing framework, additional policy adjustments, or Anthropic announcements that could lift restrictions for non-US users within coming weeks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоНОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
June 30
45%
September 30
45%
December 31
41%
$0.00 Обс.
June 30
$0 Обс.
45%
September 30
$0 Обс.
45%
December 31
$0 Обс.
41%
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to non-American customers outside of the United States by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility in at least one country outside of the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to international customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US export controls imposed via a June 12, 2026 Commerce Department directive required Anthropic to suspend Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals worldwide, prompting a complete global shutdown of both models to ensure compliance despite the models' recent June 9 launch. As of June 29, Fable 5 remains unavailable to international customers and most general users, while a June 26 letter from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick permitted limited Mythos 5 deployment for select US critical-infrastructure entities. Anthropic has stated it continues negotiations to expand access and restore Fable 5 broadly. Trader sentiment centers on the pace of any revised licensing framework, additional policy adjustments, or Anthropic announcements that could lift restrictions for non-US users within coming weeks.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to non-American customers outside of the United States by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility in at least one country outside of the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to international customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to non-American customers outside of the United States by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility in at least one country outside of the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to international customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to non-American customers outside of the United States by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility in at least one country outside of the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to international customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US export controls imposed via a June 12, 2026 Commerce Department directive required Anthropic to suspend Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals worldwide, prompting a complete global shutdown of both models to ensure compliance despite the models' recent June 9 launch. As of June 29, Fable 5 remains unavailable to international customers and most general users, while a June 26 letter from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick permitted limited Mythos 5 deployment for select US critical-infrastructure entities. Anthropic has stated it continues negotiations to expand access and restore Fable 5 broadly. Trader sentiment centers on the pace of any revised licensing framework, additional policy adjustments, or Anthropic announcements that could lift restrictions for non-US users within coming weeks.
On June 9, 2026, Anthropic released the AI model “Claude Fable 5” to the general public. On June 12, 2026, Anthropic suspended access to the specified model in response to a directive from the US government.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to non-American customers outside of the United States by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility in at least one country outside of the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to international customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic restores access to “Claude Fable 5,” also known as “Claude Mythos,” or a model confirmed to be the same model to non-American customers outside of the United States by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying model must be named "Claude Fable 5” or “Claude Mythos” (e.g., Claude Mythos 1, Claude Mythos 5, Claude Mythos X, would count), or be confirmed by Anthropic or by a consensus of credible reporting to be the same model as released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
Products labeled as Claude Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus 4.7/5.0 or similar will not count for this market's resolution unless they are confirmed to be the same model released by Anthropic on June 9, 2026.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the qualifying model (as defined above) must be restored to public accessibility in at least one country outside of the United States, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The restoration must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to international customers. If an otherwise qualifying restoration restricts access to certain customers based on nationality, whether geographically inside or outside of the US, that restoration will still qualify.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US export controls imposed via a June 12, 2026 Commerce Department directive required Anthropic to suspend Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals worldwide, prompting a complete global shutdown of both models to ensure compliance despite the models' recent June 9 launch. As of June 29, Fable 5 remains unavailable to international customers and most general users, while a June 26 letter from Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick permitted limited Mythos 5 deployment for select US critical-infrastructure entities. Anthropic has stated it continues negotiations to expand access and restore Fable 5 broadly. Trader sentiment centers on the pace of any revised licensing framework, additional policy adjustments, or Anthropic announcements that could lift restrictions for non-US users within coming weeks.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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