Recent fluctuations in SpaceX and Tesla share prices, which together comprise the bulk of Musk's holdings, are driving the closely contested market-implied odds near $900 billion. Post-midterm election tech selloffs pushed estimates down sharply from earlier October rallies tied to strong Q3 vehicle deliveries and Starship progress, while SpaceX's public valuation and AI-related synergies with xAI add further sensitivity. With just over two weeks until resolution, traders are weighing ongoing stock momentum, potential Starlink spectrum developments, and broader market conditions against historical volatility that can swing net worth by tens of billions in days.