Bulgaria’s commanding lead in the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final market stems from DARA’s high-energy “Bangaranga” performance, which dominated rehearsals and delivered the top score of 278 points on May 14. Traders have priced in this outcome after the song’s explosive staging, precise choreography, and broad appeal translated into clear voter preference over the rest of the field. With the semi-final concluded and official qualifiers confirmed, the near-certain 100% implied probability reflects overwhelming consensus rather than speculation. An upset would require an unprecedented reversal of the announced results or a major clarification from organizers, scenarios viewed as highly improbable given the completed voting and public reveal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final Winner
Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final Winner
Bulgaria 100.0%
Romania <1%
Albania <1%
Australia <1%
$247,845 Vol.
$247,845 Vol.
May 12, 2026
Bulgaria
100%
Romania
<1%
Albania
<1%
Australia
<1%
Cyprus
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Denmark
<1%
Malta
<1%
Norway
<1%
Ukraine
<1%
Bulgaria 100.0%
Romania <1%
Albania <1%
Australia <1%
$247,845 Vol.
$247,845 Vol.
May 12, 2026
Bulgaria
$25,388 Vol.
100%
Romania
$23,058 Vol.
<1%
Albania
$9,119 Vol.
<1%
Australia
$51,085 Vol.
<1%
Cyprus
$6,922 Vol.
<1%
Czechia
$9,803 Vol.
<1%
Denmark
$49,931 Vol.
<1%
Malta
$8,115 Vol.
<1%
Norway
$13,243 Vol.
<1%
Ukraine
$16,865 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Bulgaria’s commanding lead in the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final market stems from DARA’s high-energy “Bangaranga” performance, which dominated rehearsals and delivered the top score of 278 points on May 14. Traders have priced in this outcome after the song’s explosive staging, precise choreography, and broad appeal translated into clear voter preference over the rest of the field. With the semi-final concluded and official qualifiers confirmed, the near-certain 100% implied probability reflects overwhelming consensus rather than speculation. An upset would require an unprecedented reversal of the announced results or a major clarification from organizers, scenarios viewed as highly improbable given the completed voting and public reveal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Market Opened: May 7, 2026, 11:49 AM ET
Volume
$247,845End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 11:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Bulgaria’s commanding lead in the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final market stems from DARA’s high-energy “Bangaranga” performance, which dominated rehearsals and delivered the top score of 278 points on May 14. Traders have priced in this outcome after the song’s explosive staging, precise choreography, and broad appeal translated into clear voter preference over the rest of the field. With the semi-final concluded and official qualifiers confirmed, the near-certain 100% implied probability reflects overwhelming consensus rather than speculation. An upset would require an unprecedented reversal of the announced results or a major clarification from organizers, scenarios viewed as highly improbable given the completed voting and public reveal.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed country whose candidate wins the most points at the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win the most points at the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this competition is not held or no ranking is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$247,845End Date
May 12, 2026Market Opened
May 7, 2026, 11:49 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
Dispute window
Final
Bulgaria’s commanding lead in the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final market stems from DARA’s high-energy “Bangaranga” performance, which dominated rehearsals and delivered the top score of 278 points on May 14. Traders have priced in this outcome after the song’s explosive staging, precise choreography, and broad appeal translated into clear voter preference over the rest of the field. With the semi-final concluded and official qualifiers confirmed, the near-certain 100% implied probability reflects overwhelming consensus rather than speculation. An upset would require an unprecedented reversal of the announced results or a major clarification from organizers, scenarios viewed as highly improbable given the completed voting and public reveal.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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