Recent court proceedings have intensified scrutiny on former Bolivian President Evo Morales, with a Tarija judge issuing an arrest warrant on May 11 after he failed to appear for the opening of his aggravated human trafficking trial. The suspended case centers on allegations of misconduct during his presidency, yet Morales remains in the Chapare region under protection from loyal supporters who have signaled potential nationwide protests against any enforcement action. Traders assign 78% probability to no arrest by May 31 because police operations face significant logistical and political barriers in his stronghold, compounded by ongoing factional tensions within the Movement for Socialism party and the absence of immediate coordinated enforcement efforts. Historical evasion of prior warrants and risks of unrest further shape this consensus on limited near-term capture prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$13,546 Vol.
$13,546 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$13,546 Vol.
$13,546 Vol.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent court proceedings have intensified scrutiny on former Bolivian President Evo Morales, with a Tarija judge issuing an arrest warrant on May 11 after he failed to appear for the opening of his aggravated human trafficking trial. The suspended case centers on allegations of misconduct during his presidency, yet Morales remains in the Chapare region under protection from loyal supporters who have signaled potential nationwide protests against any enforcement action. Traders assign 78% probability to no arrest by May 31 because police operations face significant logistical and political barriers in his stronghold, compounded by ongoing factional tensions within the Movement for Socialism party and the absence of immediate coordinated enforcement efforts. Historical evasion of prior warrants and risks of unrest further shape this consensus on limited near-term capture prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Volume
$13,546End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent court proceedings have intensified scrutiny on former Bolivian President Evo Morales, with a Tarija judge issuing an arrest warrant on May 11 after he failed to appear for the opening of his aggravated human trafficking trial. The suspended case centers on allegations of misconduct during his presidency, yet Morales remains in the Chapare region under protection from loyal supporters who have signaled potential nationwide protests against any enforcement action. Traders assign 78% probability to no arrest by May 31 because police operations face significant logistical and political barriers in his stronghold, compounded by ongoing factional tensions within the Movement for Socialism party and the absence of immediate coordinated enforcement efforts. Historical evasion of prior warrants and risks of unrest further shape this consensus on limited near-term capture prospects.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$13,546End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent court proceedings have intensified scrutiny on former Bolivian President Evo Morales, with a Tarija judge issuing an arrest warrant on May 11 after he failed to appear for the opening of his aggravated human trafficking trial. The suspended case centers on allegations of misconduct during his presidency, yet Morales remains in the Chapare region under protection from loyal supporters who have signaled potential nationwide protests against any enforcement action. Traders assign 78% probability to no arrest by May 31 because police operations face significant logistical and political barriers in his stronghold, compounded by ongoing factional tensions within the Movement for Socialism party and the absence of immediate coordinated enforcement efforts. Historical evasion of prior warrants and risks of unrest further shape this consensus on limited near-term capture prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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