Trader consensus around a 96.6% probability of no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei by year-end stems primarily from the total absence of criminal charges, investigations, or enforcement actions against him personally. Amodei continues active leadership in AI safety advocacy, including recent calls for embedded evaluators and industry pacing, while navigating civil antitrust claims and copyright disputes that remain firmly in the civil realm. Historical precedent shows similar markets resolving decisively against arrest when no credible legal exposure materializes. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include an unexpected escalation of ongoing civil litigation into criminal territory or novel regulatory intervention, though both appear remote given current filings and enforcement patterns in the AI sector.