Weak September nonfarm payrolls of just 29,000 and a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.2% have driven the 78.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. Softer-than-expected August PCE and CPI readings around 3.4% year-over-year eased immediate tightening pressure, shifting trader consensus toward a pause despite the Fed’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range and September dot plot signaling one additional increase by year-end. Treasury yields and fed-funds futures now price limited October risk, with the 20.5% chance of a further 25-basis-point hike reflecting residual inflation concerns above the 2% target. October CPI and employment data ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors.