Recent hot inflation readings and the September FOMC meeting's hawkish economic projections anchor trader consensus around a 25 basis point federal funds rate increase at the October 27-28 meeting. August CPI rose 3.4% year-over-year with a 0.4% monthly gain, while the median dot plot lifted the end-2026 funds rate expectation to 4.1%, signaling one additional hike this year after the September move to the 3.75-4.00% target range. Resilient labor market conditions near 4.1% unemployment and service-sector strength have reinforced expectations for continued tightening to address elevated price pressures. The September CPI release scheduled for October 14 remains the key data point that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the meeting.