Forecast models from the China Meteorological Administration show Chengdu's October 10 high temperature centered near 21–23°C amid typical autumn variability, with ensemble guidance indicating modest warming from a recent cool front offset by cloud cover and light winds. Traders have priced 21°C and 22°C as joint favorites at 27.5% each, reflecting tight clustering in short-range numerical weather prediction outputs and historical October maxima around 22°C. Key variables include the strength of southerly flow and any late adjustments in boundary-layer mixing; resolution hinges on official 24-hour maximum readings. New model runs and satellite observations over the next 48 hours could shift probabilities among the tightly bunched central outcomes.