Recent forecasts from multiple models place Chengdu's October 8 high near 24–25°C under partly cloudy skies with light northeasterly winds and possible scattered showers, aligning with the market's tight clustering around those outcomes. Regional autumn cooling, reduced solar heating from increased cloud cover, and Sichuan Basin humidity are limiting daytime maxima compared to early-October peaks near 27°C. Minor model disagreements on precipitation timing and boundary-layer mixing create the narrow spread between 24°C and 26°C probabilities, while historical October averages near 23°C provide context for the current trader consensus. Updated National Meteorological Center guidance and afternoon observations tomorrow will likely refine the final resolution.