Current National Weather Service forecasts for Miami show overnight lows of 78–81°F on October 9, driven by persistent southerly to southeasterly flow, high humidity, and scattered thunderstorm activity that limits radiational cooling. Model consensus from NOAA maintains this pattern through the short term, consistent with early-October climatology where average daily lows reach 75°F but recent observations have run several degrees warmer. Market-implied probabilities cluster tightly across the 70–85°F range because small shifts in cloud cover, precipitation timing, or wind speed can alter the minimum by 2–4°F, while the modest probability assigned to 69°F or below reflects the low likelihood of a stronger cold-air intrusion before the date. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact threshold.