Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Miami points to a minimum temperature on October 7 in the mid-70s, consistent with the tightly clustered market-implied odds around the 74–79 °F buckets. A persistent warm, humid southerly flow with high dew points near 76–78 °F, combined with afternoon thunderstorm chances that increase cloud cover and limit overnight radiative cooling, keeps lows from dropping further. Historical climatology for early October shows average lows near 75 °F, and the absence of a strong frontal passage or drier air mass reinforces trader consensus on this narrow range while leaving room for small forecast adjustments from the latest model runs.