**Forecast models from the National Weather Service and other sources indicate Miami's overnight low on October 6, 2026, will likely settle in the upper 70s°F, aligning with the market's leading 78-79°F (48%) and 80-81°F (36%) bins.** Persistent warm, humid air masses typical of subtropical South Florida in early October, combined with cloud cover and scattered thunderstorm activity, limit radiational cooling and keep minimum temperatures elevated above historical averages near 74°F. Recent NWS point forecasts and GFS-based guidance project lows around 76–79°F, with dew points in the mid-70s supporting these readings. No incoming cold fronts or atypical steering patterns are altering the outlook. Traders appear to be weighting these stable, consensus model outputs heavily, as the implied probabilities closely track official guidance for the resolution criteria.