Current forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a highest temperature of 25–26°C in Chengdu on October 7, driven by autumnal cooling under weak high pressure and persistent cloud cover that limits daytime heating. Recent shifts from earlier rainy conditions have stabilized temperatures in the mid-20s°C range, aligning with historical October baselines around 22–24°C. Model consensus supports this cluster, though minor variations in steering flows or insolation could push outcomes to 27°C or hold at 25°C, explaining the market’s tight distribution across those three bins and the lower probabilities for extremes. Updated runs and observational data in the next 48 hours will refine these implied probabilities.