Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate a daily high near 22°C for Chengdu on October 5 under mostly cloudy skies with light rain possible, anchoring trader consensus around 20–22°C outcomes. Autumn cooling patterns, combined with persistent cloud cover limiting solar heating and variable steering flows, create narrow uncertainty ranges in maximum temperature. Ensemble spreads reflect modest disagreements on exact peak timing and any brief clearing, while historical October baselines near 23°C underscore the moderating influence of current synoptic conditions. Updated model runs and official briefings in the coming days will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.