Latest model consensus for Chengdu points to a daytime high near 24–25°C on October 4, with traders assigning the highest implied probabilities to those two outcomes amid a tight cluster of bids. Persistent cloud cover and scattered light rain or drizzle expected through the morning will limit solar heating, while modest northwest winds and high humidity further suppress the peak. Ensemble spreads from global and regional models show a roughly 2–3°C range tied to the exact timing of any afternoon clearing, producing the balanced market pricing between 24°C and 26°C. Official updates from the China Meteorological Administration and refined short-range guidance overnight will likely narrow the uncertainty ahead of resolution.