Recent weather model consensus from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and international forecasters points to a high near 24°C in Beijing on October 5 under clear, sunny conditions with light westerly winds and low humidity. This aligns with the market's heaviest weighting on 24°C and 25°C outcomes, reflecting traders' assessment of stable high-pressure patterns typical for early October that favor modest daytime warming without significant cloud cover or frontal activity. Forecasts show minimal divergence across runs, with lows in the 9–14°C range supporting efficient radiational heating, though small revisions in wind speed or timing could shift the exact peak by 1°C. Updated model guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.