Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and regional guidance indicate a maximum temperature of 12–13°C for Wellington on October 3, driven by a strengthening southerly flow, cloud cover, and light rain that limit daytime warming. This aligns with the market’s 91.5% implied probability on 13°C, reflecting trader consensus on the latest model runs and historical October averages near 14°C that are tempered by current synoptic patterns. Resolution depends on official observations at the Wellington station; modest upward revisions remain possible if clearing occurs earlier than expected, while stronger southerlies could cap the high below 13°C.