Recent official forecasts from Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models indicate overnight lows in Buenos Aires on October 4 will likely range from 10–12°C, driven by clearing skies after Saturday’s storms and moderate southwesterly winds limiting cold-air advection. Ensemble guidance shows limited spread in minimum temperatures, with cloud cover and exact wind timing as the main variables that could shift the low by 1–2°C. Historical October averages near 11°C provide context, yet the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 9–15°C reflects traders pricing in this narrow forecast range while assigning meaningful probability to outlier scenarios from model divergence or unseasonal cold pockets. Updated SMN briefings and next model runs will refine these thresholds ahead of the overnight period.