Recent forecasts from global models place the expected overnight minimum in Buenos Aires on October 2 near 10–12 °C under partly cloudy skies and light easterly flow, aligning with the historical early-October average low of 13 °C. Trader sentiment remains evenly split between sub-5 °C and 15 °C+ outcomes because small differences in nocturnal cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and the timing of any weak frontal passage can shift the recorded minimum by several degrees. Ensemble spreads in the latest GFS and ECMWF runs reflect this sensitivity, with drier northerly advection supporting milder readings while stronger radiational cooling under clearer skies could produce lower values. With resolution only 48 hours away, the next model update cycle and real-time surface observations will likely narrow the implied probabilities.