Trader consensus favoring ≤6 or 7 events of M5.5 or greater reflects the long-term global average rate of roughly 7–10 such earthquakes per week, derived from USGS catalogs showing several thousand M5.0–5.9 events annually alongside far fewer larger ones. Recent September–early October 2026 data, including multiple M6+ events in New Caledonia, Alaska, and Indonesia but no sustained clusters, align with typical background seismicity along major plate boundaries rather than elevated rates. Model uncertainty around aftershock sequences and detection thresholds supports the spread across mid-single-digit outcomes, with USGS real-time catalogs providing the primary resolution data.