**Forecast consensus for Chengdu on October 2 centers on a daytime maximum of 23–25°C, with market-implied probabilities highest for 24°C (28%), 23°C (26%), and 25°C (21%).** Multiple numerical weather models and local meteorological sources indicate mostly cloudy to overcast conditions under weak high pressure or transitional autumn flow across the Sichuan Basin, with light northeasterly winds and minimal precipitation expected during peak heating hours. These factors limit strong solar insolation and keep temperatures close to seasonal norms near 24°C, rather than allowing greater diurnal warming or rapid cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around this range, with low probability assigned to extremes below 22°C or above 26°C absent an unexpected shift in cloud cover or frontal timing. Updated short-range model runs and official briefings from regional agencies will provide the final resolution data for the market.