Recent official forecasts from models including GFS and European guidance indicate a maximum temperature of 21–22°C in Paris on October 1, driven by clearing skies after early light rain or drizzle, westerly to northwesterly winds of 10–15 km/h, and partly cloudy afternoon conditions. This aligns with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 22°C (48.5%) and 21°C (35.5%), which sit modestly above the 1991–2020 average high of 19.1°C. Model consensus has stabilized over the past 48 hours with limited spread, though minor revisions in cloud cover or timing of clearing could still shift the peak by 1°C. Traders appear to weigh these near-term observational and model updates heavily ahead of resolution.