Recent forecast model runs from sources including GFS data show Paris likely reaching a daily maximum of 21–22 °C on October 2 under building high pressure and light northeasterly flow, producing partly cloudy skies with minimal cloud cover and little precipitation. These conditions support the market’s heaviest volume on 22 °C (51 % implied probability), followed by 21 °C and 23 °C, as ensembles cluster tightly around this range—slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 19 °C. With resolution only two days away, any late-model shift in boundary-layer moisture or wind direction could adjust the exact peak by 1 °C, though current consensus keeps extremes below 20 °C or above 23 °C at low probability.