**Forecast consensus from numerical weather models and Japan Meteorological Agency guidance points to a high of 23–24°C in Tokyo on October 2, driven by widespread rain, thick cloud cover, and northerly flow associated with a frontal system.** These conditions suppress daytime heating and limit solar insolation compared with the clearer, warmer pattern observed on October 1. Ensemble guidance shows little spread around this range, with only modest upside risk if rainfall is lighter or delayed. The implied probabilities—led by 24°C at 53%—closely track this model consensus, while lower outcomes gain support from the expected 70–95% precipitation chance and elevated humidity. Updated JMA short-range guidance and next model runs overnight will provide the final inputs ahead of market resolution.