Current forecast models from agencies and ensembles point to a daytime maximum in Wellington on October 4 near 12–13 °C, with southerly winds advecting cooler maritime air and variable cloud cover or showers limiting surface heating. Historical October highs average around 14–15 °C, but the present spring pattern features stronger westerlies and near-normal temperatures with day-to-day variability. The tight market split between 12 °C and 13 °C reflects this narrow range of plausible outcomes, as small shifts in wind direction, timing of any rain bands, or afternoon clearing can alter the peak by 1–2 °C. Updated model runs and official guidance in the next 48 hours will clarify whether conditions trend toward the lower or upper end of the distribution.