**Current forecast models project a daily minimum around 13–15°C for Mexico City on October 4, driven by persistent cloud cover, light rain or drizzle, and moderate northerly winds that limit overnight radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation.** Recent developments include incoming moisture and convective activity expected to produce patchy precipitation through the weekend, with urban lows holding in the 14–16°C range while higher-elevation or suburban stations may dip slightly lower. This setup creates a narrow diurnal range compared with clearer conditions that could allow stronger cooling toward single digits or, conversely, warmer advection keeping readings above 16°C. Model consensus from sources such as Meteored and international agencies shows limited spread, yet the market’s balanced odds on the 7°C-or-below versus 17°C-or-higher buckets reflect residual uncertainty over exact cloud timing, wind strength, and the official measurement station’s microclimate. Updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.