**Forecast models for Mexico City on October 3 project overnight lows near 12–14°C amid light rain and northerly flow, consistent with early-October climatology at the city’s 2,240 m elevation.** Current conditions feature overcast skies and scattered showers, with surface temperatures running 15–24°C on October 1. Ensemble guidance shows modest cooling from a weak frontal passage but limited radiational cooling potential due to cloud cover and humidity near 80–90% overnight. Historical October minima average 11–12°C, with extremes below 8°C or above 16°C rare this early in the month. The near-even split between sub-8°C and 17°C+ outcomes in the market therefore reflects residual uncertainty in the precise timing of clearing skies and wind speeds rather than any strong signal for anomalous cold or warmth. Updated model runs and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the distribution around the 12–14°C range.