Recent model consensus from agencies including the China Meteorological Administration points to persistent cloud cover and widespread rainfall suppressing daytime heating across Chongqing on October 3, keeping maximum temperatures near seasonal norms rather than allowing typical early-autumn warmth. Multiple short-range forecasts indicate highs of 19–23 °C, with the tight clustering around 20–21 °C reflecting light winds, high humidity, and limited solar insolation that limit diurnal temperature range. These conditions align with the market’s leading implied probabilities for 21 °C and 20 °C, while the modest 23 °C share accounts for possible brief clearing. Updated runs expected within 24 hours will refine the exact peak ahead of market resolution.