Recent northerly winds driven by a cold air intrusion have moderated Beijing's daytime heating ahead of October 4, with official forecasts converging on a high near 20–21 °C under partly cloudy skies and low humidity. Model consensus from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles shows limited afternoon mixing due to persistent northwest flow, keeping maximum temperatures below the late-September average of roughly 23 °C while preventing significant cooling below 20 °C. This tight clustering around 21 °C explains the near-even market split between the 21 °C and 22 °C outcomes, with traders weighting the balance between observed wind gusts and any residual solar insolation on partly cloudy conditions. Final resolution will hinge on the official Beijing station reading at the daily maximum.