Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological models indicate a highest temperature in Chongqing on October 5 most likely between 21–23°C, driven by a transition from persistent rain and overcast skies earlier in the week to partly cloudy or clearing conditions with light winds. Official guidance highlights maximums near 21–22°C under variable cloud cover and low precipitation chances, consistent with early-October climatology where daily highs typically average 22–24°C before seasonal cooling accelerates. Trader sentiment clusters tightly around these values because small differences in afternoon insolation, boundary-layer moisture, or model resolution of local topography can shift the peak by 1°C, while lower-probability warmer outcomes would require stronger high-pressure ridging and clearer skies than current ensemble consensus supports. Updated model runs and observational data from the China Meteorological Administration in the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.