Recent clearing after several days of rain and cloud cover in Chongqing is the main driver lifting implied odds for a 27–28°C high on October 7. Official and model guidance shows northeast flow and building high pressure replacing the prior moist southwesterly regime, reducing cloudiness and allowing stronger daytime heating in the Sichuan Basin. Subtle differences among leading outcomes (28°C at 30.5%, 27°C at 30.0%, 22°C or below at 30.0%) reflect uncertainty in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and residual moisture, with some runs capping the peak near 26°C while others reach 29–30°C. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow this range before resolution.