Recent forecasts from multiple models, including GFS runs, indicate Moscow will experience mild southwesterly flow under an Atlantic cyclone influence on October 6, with daytime highs most likely reaching 12–14 °C amid persistent cloud cover and light rain or drizzle. This setup favors modest daytime warming above the 1991–2020 average high of 11.6 °C while limiting stronger heating or cooling. Hourly guidance shows peaks clustered near 13 °C in the afternoon before evening stabilization, with limited model spread supporting the market’s concentration on 13 °C and 14 °C outcomes. Traders appear to price in the current consensus trajectory ahead of final observational data, noting that any last-minute steering changes or clearer breaks could nudge the maximum slightly higher or lower.