**Recent short-range model consensus from sources like GFS positions the maximum temperature in Munich on October 1, 2026, most likely in the 23–25°C range, aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting on 24°C (30%) and 25°C (41%).** Forecasts indicate partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies with light winds from the west or northwest and minimal precipitation risk during peak heating hours, supporting daytime highs near or slightly above the long-term average of 17.2°C while remaining well below the all-time October 1 record of 26.4°C. A broader warm anomaly noted in early October outlooks—driven by persistent high-pressure patterns and above-normal 500 hPa heights—has kept probabilities for 26–27°C non-negligible at 16% and 12.5%, though ensemble spreads and increasing cloud cover in the latest runs cap upside risk. With resolution only days away, updates from operational models and local observations will continue to refine these implied probabilities around the central 24–25°C outcomes.