Current forecasts from meteorological models point to an overcast, rainy day in São Paulo on July 24 that should cap maximum temperatures near 17–18 °C. Persistent cloud cover and showers, linked to a passing frontal system, reduce solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling at the city’s 760 m elevation, keeping surface readings below the July climatological average of 21–22 °C. Recent model runs show only modest warming potential if breaks in the clouds occur during peak afternoon hours, creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the two leading outcomes. Traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance on precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, which remain the key variables that could shift the daily maximum by 1 °C in either direction before official station data finalize the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 24?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 24?
18°C 31%
17°C 30%
19°C 18%
20°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
4%
16°C
10%
17°C
30%
18°C
31%
19°C
18%
20°C
11%
21°C
5%
22°C
3%
23°C or higher
1%
18°C 31%
17°C 30%
19°C 18%
20°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Jul 24, 2026
13°C or below
$20 Vol.
1%
14°C
$45 Vol.
3%
15°C
$79 Vol.
4%
16°C
$1 Vol.
10%
17°C
$15 Vol.
30%
18°C
$16 Vol.
31%
19°C
$77 Vol.
18%
20°C
$1 Vol.
11%
21°C
$89 Vol.
5%
22°C
$35 Vol.
3%
23°C or higher
$193 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models point to an overcast, rainy day in São Paulo on July 24 that should cap maximum temperatures near 17–18 °C. Persistent cloud cover and showers, linked to a passing frontal system, reduce solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling at the city’s 760 m elevation, keeping surface readings below the July climatological average of 21–22 °C. Recent model runs show only modest warming potential if breaks in the clouds occur during peak afternoon hours, creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the two leading outcomes. Traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance on precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, which remain the key variables that could shift the daily maximum by 1 °C in either direction before official station data finalize the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 22, 2026, 9:01 PM ET
Volume
$571End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 9:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models point to an overcast, rainy day in São Paulo on July 24 that should cap maximum temperatures near 17–18 °C. Persistent cloud cover and showers, linked to a passing frontal system, reduce solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling at the city’s 760 m elevation, keeping surface readings below the July climatological average of 21–22 °C. Recent model runs show only modest warming potential if breaks in the clouds occur during peak afternoon hours, creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the two leading outcomes. Traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance on precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, which remain the key variables that could shift the daily maximum by 1 °C in either direction before official station data finalize the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$571End Date
Jul 24, 2026Market Opened
Jul 22, 2026, 9:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological models point to an overcast, rainy day in São Paulo on July 24 that should cap maximum temperatures near 17–18 °C. Persistent cloud cover and showers, linked to a passing frontal system, reduce solar heating and enhance evaporative cooling at the city’s 760 m elevation, keeping surface readings below the July climatological average of 21–22 °C. Recent model runs show only modest warming potential if breaks in the clouds occur during peak afternoon hours, creating the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the two leading outcomes. Traders are weighting the latest high-resolution guidance on precipitation timing and boundary-layer moisture, which remain the key variables that could shift the daily maximum by 1 °C in either direction before official station data finalize the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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