Recent official and model guidance from IMGW-PIB and GFS ensembles points to a maximum near 19°C in Warsaw on October 4 under mostly cloudy skies and light westerly flow, limiting daytime heating. Persistent high pressure supports mild conditions overall, but increasing mid-level cloud reduces solar insolation compared with the clearer prior day, while weak advection of cooler maritime air keeps the thermal profile suppressed. The tight spread between 19–21°C outcomes reflects remaining uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact cloud timing, with traders weighting ensemble members that allow brief afternoon breaks in cover. Historical October maxima average 13–15°C, so current values sit well above climatology yet remain sensitive to small forecast adjustments before resolution.