Current ensemble forecasts from European models point to a high of 21–22°C in Warsaw on October 3 under hazy sunshine and light southerly flow, with minimal cloud cover and dry conditions supporting modest daytime warming. This aligns with early-October climatology for the region, where highs typically range 18–22°C amid transitioning autumn patterns. Minor model spread arises from subtle differences in predicted boundary-layer mixing and afternoon cloud development, which could shift the peak by 1–2°C. Traders appear to price in this narrow range ahead of refined short-range guidance expected October 2, as resolution hinges on official observations from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management.