Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources, including GFS model outputs and local Polish services, indicate a daytime high near 20°C in Warsaw on October 1, 2026, under partly cloudy to overcast skies with light southeasterly winds and negligible precipitation. This places the outcome near the upper end of the historical early-October average (roughly 15–17°C), supported by stable high pressure and dry air masses. Hourly model runs show afternoon peaks most likely reaching 19–20°C, with limited upside potential to 21°C depending on cloud breaks and exact measurement timing at official stations. Trader consensus reflected in the market-implied odds aligns closely with these consensus forecasts, though minor model variations in timing or micro-location could still shift the final recorded maximum. Updated guidance from agencies like the Polish Institute of Meteorology is expected to refine probabilities through the afternoon.