**Forecast models and observational data indicate a high of 20–21°C in Warsaw on October 6, 2026, driving the market’s heavy weighting toward 21°C (58% implied probability).** Westerly flow advecting mild Atlantic air, combined with partly cloudy conditions that permit daytime heating without excessive insolation, supports this range. Multiple sources, including GFS-based guidance and European models, converge on afternoon peaks near 20–21°C under light to moderate westerly winds, with minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with early-October climatology for the region, where highs typically reach the upper teens to low 20s. The modest probability on 22°C reflects slight model spread and potential for brief clearing, while lower outcomes remain discounted absent cold-air intrusion. Official Polish meteorological observations will resolve the market shortly after the daily maximum is recorded.