Recent numerical weather prediction consensus from models including GFS and ECMWF indicates a maximum temperature in Warsaw of 20–21°C on October 7 under partly cloudy skies with light southeasterly flow. This autumnal pattern features modest solar heating, stable high pressure, and minimal frontal influence, keeping values near seasonal norms rather than pushing toward 22°C or higher. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around these outcomes because small differences in cloud cover timing or boundary-layer mixing can shift the daily peak by 1°C, while ensemble spreads remain modest given the short forecast horizon. Updated runs ahead of resolution will clarify any late adjustments from regional observations.