**Traders assign the highest probability (74%) to fewer than five posts by the relevant Khamenei account(s) during September 29–October 6, 2026, reflecting the historically low posting frequency of official Supreme Leader channels outside acute crises.** Ali Khamenei’s English and multilingual X accounts long averaged well under one post per day over extended periods, with many stretches of several days or weeks of inactivity punctuated by bursts during regional tensions. Following his death in early 2026, successor Mojtaba Khamenei’s accounts and affiliated media channels (@Khamenei_m, @MKhamenei_ir) have maintained similarly measured output—primarily statements, archival material, and occasional messages—rather than daily commentary. No major diplomatic, military, or domestic developments are scheduled or reported in the immediate window that would prompt elevated activity. Recent September 2026 posts from related handles show only a handful per week, consistent with routine messaging on education, unity, and historical reflection rather than high-volume engagement. The market’s pricing therefore embeds the established pattern of restrained social media use by Iran’s leadership institutions absent extraordinary triggers.