Trader consensus shows high uncertainty in Beijing's minimum temperature forecast for October 2, with probabilities clustered near 40-50% across outcomes from 5°C or below to 15°C or higher. Ensemble model spreads from global systems reflect variable cold-air advection from the north, modulated by the positioning of the East Asian trough and lingering summer warmth. Local factors such as urban heat effects and boundary-layer stability add to divergence between runs, while climatological baselines for early October average around 10-12°C. New model updates and official observations from the China Meteorological Administration will likely refine resolution criteria before the close.