Recent forecasts from the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and global models show Buenos Aires under southeasterly flow with extensive cloud cover, supporting an overnight minimum near 10–13°C for October 12 as warmer maritime air limits radiational cooling. This consensus, consistent with recent observations of 9–12°C lows amid stabilizing post-frontal conditions, underpins the market’s elevated implied probability for 5°C or below. Traders appear to weigh residual model spread, possible stronger cold-air advection, or localized urban effects against the baseline mild pattern, while near-zero odds for 15°C or higher reflect the limited warming potential overnight. Updated model runs and SMN briefings ahead of resolution will clarify whether conditions trend colder than current guidance.