Recent forecasts for Chengdu show overnight lows clustering near 16–18°C on October 10 amid transitioning autumn conditions, with model consensus split on the strength of radiative cooling under variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Persistent humidity from recent showers, light northerly winds, and a stable boundary layer limit sharp temperature drops, while clearer intervals could allow greater nocturnal cooling toward 13–15°C. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow spread across numerical weather prediction outputs, where small shifts in expected cloud timing or dew-point depression could tip the minimum above or below key thresholds before resolution.