Recent forecasts from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international models indicate overnight lows in Chengdu on October 8 will likely range from 17–19°C under mostly cloudy to light-rain conditions, limiting clear-sky radiative cooling. Persistent high humidity near 80–90% and light northeast winds further moderate temperature drops, while the ongoing seasonal transition from summer warmth keeps baselines elevated relative to climatological October averages around 16–17°C. Model consensus remains tight but shows minor spread from subtle differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, which directly influences the precise minimum and explains the near-even market-implied odds clustered at 18–20°C. Updated CMA guidance and evening observations tomorrow will provide the final resolution data.