Current short-term forecasts for Chengdu indicate a minimum temperature near 16–18°C on October 9, driven by expected overnight cloud cover and light rain that limits radiative cooling. Official model consensus places the low in this range, consistent with early-October climatology of 15–16°C but tempered by persistent moisture and light northerly winds. Trader odds reflect this narrow band of uncertainty, with nearly equal implied probabilities for outcomes below 15°C versus 25°C or higher underscoring sensitivity to small shifts in cloud timing or precipitation intensity. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the spread, as historical variability shows October lows can fluctuate several degrees based on frontal passages or clear-sky episodes.