Recent forecast model runs for Guangzhou show notable divergence on October 1 minimum temperatures, with some ensembles favoring a cooler nocturnal boundary layer under increased cloud cover and light rain while others project continued subtropical warmth near 26–28 °C. This uncertainty drives the near-even 49 % market-implied odds on 22 °C or below versus 32 °C or higher, as traders weigh the timing of any frontal passage against the region’s typical early-October climatology of 22.7 °C average lows. Historical data indicate occasional drops below 20 °C when northerly flow strengthens, yet most recent guidance keeps overnight readings in the mid-20s, leaving resolution sensitive to the next 48-hour model updates from agencies such as the China Meteorological Administration.